气候变化对冀西北青贮玉米种植布局影响的预测

许瀚林,刘瑶,袁晓峰,潘婕,瓮巧云,吕爱枝,刘颖慧

Projection of Climate Change on the Planting Distribution of Silage Maize in Northwest Hebei Province

Hanlin Xu,Yao Liu,Xiaofeng Yuan,Jie Pan,Qiaoyun Weng,Aizhi Lü,Yinghui Liu

表1 冀西北各县区的气象变化

Table 1 Meteorological changes in counties and districts in Northwest Hebei

地区 Area 年平均温度(℃) Average annual temperature ≥10℃积温(℃) ≥10℃ accumulated temperature 降水量(mm) Precipitation Bs 2030s 2050s Bs 2030s 2050s Bs 2030s 2050s 赤城Chicheng 5.01 6.40 7.46 2 951.14 3 295.11 3 492.37 474.40 511.55 463.91 崇礼Chongli 4.38 5.74 6.81 2 854.78 3 177.86 3 376.73 429.78 485.76 430.37 沽源Guyuan 1.42 2.80 3.84 2 285.76 2 588.66 2 778.63 434.97 482.93 434.13 怀安Huaian 6.41 7.78 8.82 3 264.12 3 600.78 3 810.48 409.98 467.90 419.54 怀来Huailai 7.86 9.22 10.28 3 535.04 3 925.09 4 127.01 492.23 538.56 493.53 康保Kangbao 0.31 1.69 2.68 2 093.42 2 375.17 2 543.01 399.20 466.98 421.11 尚义Shangyi 4.05 5.39 6.40 2 791.20 3 091.69 3 265.21 397.94 464.18 422.88 万全Wanquan 5.65 7.00 8.05 3 125.00 3 451.74 3 649.79 405.49 469.44 419.26 蔚县Yu county 6.31 7.69 8.71 3 170.38 3 521.17 3 729.71 489.88 531.66 492.36 宣化Xuhua 6.39 7.77 8.83 3 254.17 3 597.16 3 809.25 433.66 484.35 434.87 阳原Yangyuan 6.42 7.82 8.85 3 243.78 3 587.69 3 801.08 432.30 476.06 428.86 张北Zhangbei 3.22 4.57 5.61 2 639.40 2 946.46 3 131.40 408.69 475.71 423.41 张家口Zhangjiakou 6.14 7.51 8.57 3 217.44 3 559.08 3 763.87 427.67 480.35 429.38 涿鹿Zhuolu 7.25 8.62 9.67 3 374.05 3 743.58 3 956.34 488.44 538.06 494.56