Crops ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 217-224.doi: 10.16035/j.issn.1001-7283.2026.01.027

Previous Articles     Next Articles

Simulation of Spring Wheat Yield Response to Precipitation, Nitrogen Application, and Straw Mulching under Different Precipitation Year Types

Ye Xiaojuan1(), Liu Qiang2()   

  1. 1College of Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
    2College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
  • Received:2024-10-09 Revised:2024-12-10 Online:2026-02-15 Published:2026-02-10

RichHTML

2

PDF (PC)

31

Abstract:

To investigate the mechanism of the coupled effects of precipitation, nitrogen (N) fertilizer, and straw mulching on dryland spring wheat yield under different precipitation year types, the APSIM model was calibrated using spring wheat yield, soil, and meteorological data under no-tillage and no-tillage with straw mulching from 2013 to 2018. Combined with historical data from 1970 to 2022 to drive the calibrated model, yields were simulated under 5×5×5 combinations of precipitation changes (±20%, ±10% and 0%), nitrogen application rates (0.0, 52.5, 105.0, 157.5, and 210.0 kg/ha), and straw mulching rates (0, 1125, 2250, 3375, and 4500 kg/ha). The coefficient of variation of yield under single-factor was analyzed for each year type, and quadratic orthogonal polynomial stepwise regression, single-factor analysis, and interaction effects were employed to study the impacts of various factors on yield. The results showed that the APSIM model performed well, with R2 > 0.8, NRMSE < 10%, and ME > 0.8 for both tillage practices. In dry, normal, and wet years, the individual and interactive effects of the three factors all positively influenced yield, with the order of effect intensity being: precipitation change > nitrogen application rate > straw mulching rate. Based on the natural precipitation of the current year, the optimal yields and cultivation measures for each year type were as follows: in dry years, an optimal yield of 2203.65 kg/ha was achieved by increasing precipitation by 20%, applying 153.13 kg/ha of nitrogen, and mulching with 4500 kg/ha of straw; in normal years, an optimal yield of 2838.77 kg/ha required a 20% increase in precipitation, 170.76 kg/ha of nitrogen, and 4500 kg/ha of straw mulching; in wet years, an optimal yield of 3447.11 kg/ha required a 20% increase in precipitation, 188.58 kg/ha of nitrogen, and 4500 kg/ha of straw mulching. In conclusion, within the simulated experimental range, increasing precipitation, nitrogen application rate, and straw mulching amount under no-tillage conditions can enhance the simulated yield of spring wheat, but the degree of impact varies with precipitation year types. For local spring wheat, water, fertilizer, and mulching strategies should be formulated according to the specific year type to achieve high and stable yields.

Key words: APSIM, Spring wheat, Precipitation, Nitrogen fertilizer, Straw mulching, Yield

Table 1

Wheat variety parameters of Dingxi 35"

参数
Parameter		 数值
Value
春化敏感因子Vernalization sensitivity factors 1.0
光周期敏感因子Photoperiod sensitivity factors 2.0
单位茎秆干物质的籽粒数
Grains per stem dry matter unit (grain/g)		 25.0
潜在的籽粒灌浆速度Potential grain filling rate (g/d·grain) 0.001
灌浆期到成熟期的积温
Thermal time from filling to maturity (℃·d)		 580
最大灌浆速率Maximum grain filling rate (mg/d·grain) 2.30
分蘖重Weight of tillers (g/tiller) 1.22
株高Plant height (mm) 1000
最大谷粒重Maximum grain weight (g) 0.045

Table 2

Simulation experiment design of precipitation variability, nitrogen application rate and straw mulching amount"

降水变化量
Precipitation
variability (%)		 无量纲编码
Dimensionless
code		 施氮量
Nitrogen application
rate (kg/hm2)		 无量纲编码
Dimensionless
code		 秸秆覆盖量
Straw mulching
amount (kg/hm2)		 无量纲编码
Dimensionless
code
-20 -1.40855 0.0 -1.40855 0 -1.40855
-10 -0.70427 52.5 -0.70427 1125 -0.70427
0 0.00000 105.0 0.00000 2250 0.00000
10 0.70427 157.5 0.70427 3375 0.70427
20 1.40855 210.0 1.40855 4500 1.40855

Table 3

Soil physico-chemical parameters"

土层深度
Depth of soil
layer (cm)		 风干含水率
Air-dried moisture
(mm/mm)		 容重
Bulk density
(g/cm3)		 饱和含水量
Saturated
moisture (mm/mm)		 铵态氮
Ammonium
nitrogen (mg/kg)		 硝态氮
Nitrate nitrogen
(mg/kg)
0~5 0.013 1.290 0.463 6.300 19.100
5~10 0.013 1.226 0.487 5.200 15.200
10~30 0.046 1.325 0.450 5.100 23.100
30~50 0.071 1.200 0.497 4.900 16.600
50~80 0.087 1.140 0.520 4.600 16.800
80~110 0.103 1.140 0.520 4.800 18.200
110~140 0.107 1.250 0.480 4.800 16.400
140~170 0.115 1.120 0.529 5.800 13.700
170~200 0.127 1.110 0.531 4.100 15.400

Table 4

Different precipitation year types"

年型
Model year		 平均降水量
Average precipitation (mm)		 年份数量
Number of years		 年份
Year
丰水年
Wet year		 259.03
 17
 1977、1978、1979、1984、1986、1990、1991、1993、1998、1999、2003、2005、2012、2013、2018、2019、2020
平水年
Normal year		 200.15
 23
 1970、1972、1973、1980、1981、1983、1985、1987、1988、1989、1992、1994、1996、2002、2004、2006、2007、2010、2014、2015、2016、2021、2022
欠水年
Dry year		 136.40
 13
 1971、1974、1975、1976、1982、1995、1997、2000、2001、2008、2009、2011、2017

Fig.1

Linear regression fit of simulated and measured values of wheat yield"

Table 5

Significance analysis of the effect of different precipitation year types on the simulated yield of spring wheat"

降水年型
Precipitation year type		 春小麦产量
Spring wheat yield (kg/hm2)		 F
欠水年Dry year 1383.24±448.18c 77.05
平水年Normal year 1782.94±536.71b
丰水年Wet year 2199.54±567.41a

Fig.2

Variation coefficient of yield under single factor effect of different precipitation year types"

Table 6

Quadratic orthogonal regression equation for different precipitation year type"

年型Year 回归方程Regression equation R 2 - F P
欠水年Dry year Y欠水年=0.3581+0.7265X1+0.2208X2+0.0922X3+0.0254X12-0.4554X22+0.2485X1X2+0.0398X1X3+0.0123X2X3 0.794 60.63 <0.001
平水年Normal year Y平水年=0.3721+0.7088X1+0.3366X2+0.0772X3+0.0345X12-0.4407X22+0.2937X1X2+0.0387X1X3+0.0192X2X3 0.849 88.41 <0.001
丰水年Wet year Y丰水年=0.4045+0.7000X1+0.4523X2+0.0687X3+0.0611X12-0.4251X22+0.3352X1X2+0.0281X1X3+0.0205X2X3 0.932 214.87 <0.001

Fig.3

Single factor equation of spring wheat yield in different precipitation year types and its effect"

[1] 姜大膀, 王娜. IPCC AR6报告解读:水循环变化. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(6):699-704.
[2] 姜大膀, 王晓欣. 对IPCC第六次评估报告中有关干旱变化的解读. 大气科学学报, 2021, 44(5):650-653.
[3] 周天军, 陈梓明, 陈晓龙, 等. IPCC AR6报告解读:未来的全球气候——基于情景的预估和近期信息气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(6):652-663.
[4] Seth P, Sebastian J. Plants and global warming: challenges and strategies for a warming world. Plant Cell Reports, 2024, 43(1):27.
doi: 10.1007/s00299-023-03083-w pmid: 38163826
[5] 刘玉洁, 陈巧敏, 葛全胜, 等. 气候变化背景下1981-2010中国小麦物候变化时空分异. 中国科学:地球科学, 2018, 48(7):888-898.
[6] 周景博, 刘亮. 未来气候变化对中国小麦产量影响的差异性研究——基于Meta回归分析的定量综述. 中国农业气象, 2018, 39(3):141-151.
[7] 周丽涛, 孙爽, 郭尔静, 等. 干旱条件下APSIM模型修正及华北冬小麦产量模拟效果. 农业工程学报, 2023, 39(6):92-102.
[8] 张婷婷, 范子晗, 常乐乐, 等. 西北地区小麦生产环境风险时空特征. 干旱地区农业研究, 2023, 41(2):248-256.
[9] 刘淑军, 李冬初, 黄晶, 等. 近30年来我国小麦和玉米秸秆资源时空变化特征及还田减肥潜力. 中国农业科学, 2023, 56 (16):3140-3155.
doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2023.16.008
[10] Shao Y H, Xie Y X, Wang C Y, et al. Effects of different soil conservation tillage approaches on soil nutrients, water use and wheat-maize yield in rainfed dry-land regions of North China. European Journal of Agronomy, 2016, 81(10):37-45.
doi: 10.1016/j.eja.2016.08.014
[11] 张统帅, 闫丽娟, 李广, 等. 免耕和秸秆覆盖对旱作区土壤氮素、水分和春小麦产量的影响. 浙江农业学报, 2020, 32(8):1329-1341.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.2020.08.01
[12] 王佳, 冯晓淼, 芈书贞, 等. 模拟降雨量变化与CO2浓度升高对小麦光合特性和碳氮特征的影响. 水土保持研究, 2020, 27(1):328-334,339.
[13] 李枫, 周杨, 尹鹏, 等. 长江中游不同品质类型小麦产量形成及氮素吸收利用对氮肥的响应. 麦类作物学报, 2024, 44(3):370-377
[14] 茹晓雅, 李广, 陈国鹏, 等. 不同降水年型下水氮调控对小麦产量及生物量的影响. 作物学报, 2019, 45(11):1725-1734.
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2019.91008
[15] 崔振坤, 于振文, 石玉, 等. 水氮运筹对小麦光合物质生产和产量的影响. 应用生态学报, 2024, 35(6):1564-1572.
doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202406.017
[16] 王永亮, 胥子航, 李申, 等. 不同覆盖措施对土壤水热状况及春玉米产量和水分利用效率的影响. 作物学报, 2024, 50(5):1312-1324.
doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1006.2024.33025
[17] 王文杰, 马建涛, 柴雨葳, 等. 不同覆盖方式对旱地春小麦土壤水热及生长的影响. 麦类作物学报, 2023, 43(9):1206-1214.
[18] Yin H J, Zhao W Q, Li T, et al. Balancing straw returning and chemical fertilizers in China: role of straw nutrient resources. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2018, 81(1):2695-2702.
doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.06.076
[19] 薛志伟, 杨春玲. 秸秆还田条件下氮肥用量对冬小麦生长发育及产量的影响. 作物研究, 2021, 35(3):200-204.
[20] 张静, 马嵩科, 张冬霞, 等. 秸秆还田配施氮肥对旱地小麦生理生化特性及产量的影响. 江苏农业科学, 2023, 51(23):61-69.
[21] 王伟伟, 聂志刚. 降水和温度变化下秸秆覆盖对旱地春小麦产量及其构成因素的影响. 作物研究, 2023, 37(4):335-342.
[22] 李广, 黄高宝, William B, 等. APSIM模型在黄土丘陵沟壑区不同耕作措施中的适用性. 生态学报, 2009, 29(5):2655-2663.
[23] 杨蕊, 王小燕, 刘科. 湖北省小麦潜在产量时空异质性特征及驱动因子分析. 中国生态农业学报, 2024, 32(4):616-626.
[24] Zeleke K. Simulating agronomic adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on wheat yield in south-eastern Australia. Agronomy, 2021, 11(2):337.
doi: 10.3390/agronomy11020337
[25] 李晓州, 郝明德, 赵晶, 等. 不同降水年型下长期施肥的小麦产量效应. 应用生态学报, 2018, 29(10):3237-3244.
[26] 刘强, 高雪慧, 王钧. 不同降水年型下大气CO2浓度和温度对旱地春小麦产量的响应模拟. 干旱地区农业研究, 2023, 41 (2):230-237,265.
[27] 尹嘉德, 侯慧芝, 张绪成, 等. 基于APSIM模型分析不同降水年型下施氮深度对旱地小麦的产量效应. 水土保持学报, 2022, 36(1):247-254.
[28] 任新庄, 闫丽娟, 李广, 等. 陇中旱地春小麦产量对降水与温度变化的响应模拟. 干旱地区农业研究, 2018, 36(3):125-129,155.
[29] 冯仰强, 聂志刚, 王钧, 等. 基于APSIM模型研究不同降水年型下降水变化对旱地小麦产量的影响. 作物研究, 2021, 35(2):108-111,140.
[30] 董志强, 张丽华, 吕丽华, 等. 不同灌溉方式对冬小麦光合速率及产量的影响. 干旱地区农业研究, 2015, 33(6):1-7.
[31] 高艳梅, 孙敏, 高志强, 等. 不同降水年型旱地小麦覆盖对产量及水分利用效率的影响. 中国农业科学, 2015, 48(18):3589-3599.
doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2015.18.003
[32] García-López J, Lorite I J, García-Ruiz R, et al. Yield response of sunflower to irrigation and fertilization under semi-arid conditions. Agricultural Water Management, 2016, 176(14):151-162.
doi: 10.1016/j.agwat.2016.05.020
[33] 周冬冬, 张军, 李福建, 等. 稻秸还田与耕作方式对小麦产量形成及籽粒品质的影响. 麦类作物学报, 2022, 42(10):1273-1282.
[34] 马晓明, 李丹, 雷佳, 等. 不同降水年型下耕作方式结合覆盖对旱地土壤物理性质和马铃薯产量的影响. 应用生态学报, 2024, 35(2):447-456.
doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202402.012
[35] 王培如, 钟融, 孙敏, 等. 不同降水年型施氮量对冬小麦水氮资源利用效率的调控. 植物营养与肥料学报, 2022, 28(8):1430-1443.
[36] 张森昱, 冯雨露, 马建涛, 等. 不同降水年型下秸秆带状覆盖对西北旱地马铃薯品质和产量的影响. 干旱地区农业研究, 2023, 41(5):207-216.
[37] 常磊, 韩凡香, 柴雨葳, 等. 秸秆带状覆盖对半干旱雨养区冬小麦耗水特征和产量的影响. 应用生态学报, 2019, 30(12):4150-4158.
[38] 王新媛, 赵思达, 郑险峰, 等. 秸秆还田和氮肥用量对冬小麦产量和氮素利用的影响. 中国农业科学, 2021, 54(23):5043-5053.
doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2021.23.010
[39] 陈松鹤, 向晓玲, 雷芳, 等. 秸秆覆盖配施氮肥根际土真菌群落及其与小麦产量的关系. 生态学报, 2022, 42(21):8751-8761.
[40] 杨慧敏, 王涛, 窦瑛霞, 等. 不同降水年型地膜覆盖及秸秆覆盖提高小麦产量和氮素利用的效应. 植物营养与肥料学报, 2021, 27(11):1905-1914.
[1] Zhou Wenli, Hao Miaoyi, Zhang Renhe. Effects of Nitrogen Fertilizer on Maize Root Growth and Nitrogen Metabolism under High-Density Planting [J]. Crops, 2026, 42(1): 125-132.
[2] Ma Xiaoming, Qi Xiangkun, Tan Xue, Shi Mengyu, Wang Yufeng, Fu Jian, Yang Kejun. Effects of No-tillage with Straw Mulching on Soil Aggregate Stability and Maize Yield in Semi-Arid Region [J]. Crops, 2026, 42(1): 152-159.
[3] Xie Fuxin, Jiang Xiaolin, Li Chenghuan, Zhang Wenjing, Wang Feixue, Hu Weili, Mei Hongxian, He Geming, Liu Yan. Effects of Harvesting Period on Main Economic Yield Traits and Comprehensive Benefit Analysis of Sesame Leaf Vegetable [J]. Crops, 2026, 42(1): 160-166.
[4] Shi Nuo, Zhu Hongqiang, Yang Mengxuan, Zhou Yanbin, Dai Huijuan, Lü Penghui, Liu Bo, Wang Shengfeng, Mu Wenpo, Du Yu. Effects of Different Microbial Fertilizers on Growth, Yield and Quality of Flue-Cured Tobacco [J]. Crops, 2026, 42(1): 189-196.
[5] Zhang Le, Han Yunfei, Du Erxiao, Li Baocheng, San Xintong, Liu Xinyu, Wang Yanli, Zhao Peiyi, Ren Yongfeng. Effects of Organic Fertilization Measures on Photosynthetic Characteristics, Nutrient Content and Yield of Potato [J]. Crops, 2026, 42(1): 197-207.
[6] Xu Hao, Wei Quanquan, Tan Hongwei, Gou Jiulan, Ran Xuesong, Zhang Meng, Song Nanling, Liu Lingling, Gu Xiaofeng, Lü Xibin. Effect of Organic-Inorganic Compound Fertilizer from Distillerʼs Grains on Yield, Quality, Nutrient Uptake and Utilization of Sorghum [J]. Crops, 2026, 42(1): 208-216.
[7] Sang Ruijuan, Dong Chunyang, Zhang Hongmei, He Yun, Sun Hao, Liu Boshuai, Zhu Xiaoyan, Ma Sen, Li Defeng. Effects of Mowing at Different Growth Stages on Forage Yield, Quality and Silage Fermentation Quality of Triticale in Northern Henan Province [J]. Crops, 2026, 42(1): 225-230.
[8] Yang Wengao, Yuan Wenjue, Li Zhaoguang, He Guiqing, He Qiongji, Wang Rui, Li Yan, Ye Lei, Hou Zhijiang. Effects of Winter Sowing Date on Agronomic Traits and Yield of Quinoa in Northwestern Yunnan, China [J]. Crops, 2026, 42(1): 257-265.
[9] Li Qingxin, Jin Xiuliang, Song Xiao, Zhang Keke, Guo Tengfei, Huang Shaomin, Yue Ke, Ding Shijie, Huang Ming, Li Youjun. Effects of Partial Replacement of Nitrogen Fertilizer with Organic Fertilizer on Growth of Winter Wheat and Soil Properties in Eastern Henan [J]. Crops, 2025, 41(6): 121-131.
[10] Gao Wenrui, Sun Yanjun, Han Bing, Zhang Xiaoqing, Wang Xiansheng, Zheng Zisong. Effects of Exogenous Organic Selenium on Yield and Fruit Quality of Facility Cherry Tomato [J]. Crops, 2025, 41(6): 140-147.
[11] Lan Xiu, Liang Zhenhua, Yang Haixia, Li Hengrui, Ruan Lixia, Wei Wanling, Chen Huixian, He Hongliang, Huang Ruolan, Zhao Chunhui, Tang Danfeng. Effects of Sugarcane and Platostoma palustre Intercropping on Soil Physicochemical Properties and Crop Yield [J]. Crops, 2025, 41(6): 156-163.
[12] Qin Nana, Huang Linhua, Chen Ying, Wang Shengmou, Xie Yong, Miao Kai, Li Wanming, Qi Lan. Effects of Foliar Propionyl Brassinolide Application on Photosynthesis, Agronomic Traits and Yield of Summer Soybean [J]. Crops, 2025, 41(6): 164-171.
[13] Wang Shuqi, Li Jianbo, Liu Zhiping, Ma Yu, Qu Jiahui, Batu , Xu Shoujun. Physiological Mechanism of Yield and Protein Formation in Barley under Different Cultivation Modes [J]. Crops, 2025, 41(6): 172-180.
[14] Yan Xiaowen, Liang Junchao, Zeng Pan, Zhou Hongying, Wang Zhiqi, Le Meiwang, Sun Jian. Effects of Late Sowing on Main Agronomic Traits and Yield of Autumn Sesame [J]. Crops, 2025, 41(6): 189-194.
[15] Zhang Aiying, Zhao Yuan, Liu Min, Xue Hongtao, Wang Guoliang, Wang Rui, Guo Erhu. Effects of Different Harvest Time and Harvesting Methods on Yield and Quality of Foxtail Millet [J]. Crops, 2025, 41(6): 195-202.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited
  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!