Crops ›› 2025, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 276-282.doi: 10.16035/j.issn.1001-7283.2025.04.035

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Simulation of Response of Spring Wheat Yield and Biomass to Nitrogen Application Rate and Sowing Date in Dryland under Future Meteorological Conditions

Wang Zhigang1(), Liu Qiang1(), Wang Jin1, Gong Jingjin2, Yao Qunying3   

  1. 1College of Information Science and Technology, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
    2Heilongjiang Institute of Meteorological Science, Harbin 150000, Heilongjiang, China
    3Altay Meteorological Bureau, Altay 836500, Xinjiang, China
  • Received:2024-04-18 Revised:2024-05-27 Online:2025-08-15 Published:2025-08-12

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Abstract:

Spring wheat is one of the main crops in Gansu Province, and its plant growth and yield changes are of great significance for ensuring the food security of the local area and even northwest China. APSIM-Wheat crop model has high accuracy and adaptability in simulating wheat growth, development and yield, which can provide production basis and decision support for agricultural producers and decision makers. In order to explore the coupling effects of sowing date and nitrogen application rate on spring wheat yield and biomass in dryland under future meteorological conditions, this study verified the applicability of APSIM-Wheat model based on the meteorological data, soil data and management data, along with spring wheat yield and biomass data from field experiment conducted in the experimental area of Longzhong, Gansu Province, from 2013 to 2018. The results showed that the NRMSE of spring wheat simulated yield and biomass were both less than 8%, and the ME were both greater than 0.8, indicating that the models had high accuracy and applicability. Based on the 2025-2100 meteorological data of the study area under the prediction of two typical concentration paths of CMIP5, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the simulation scenarios of sowing date and nitrogen gradient change: early sowing (3rd, March), normal sowing (18th, March) and late sowing (31st, March) were set, which were represented by ESW, NSW and LSW, respectively. Nitrogen application rates were set as five gradients (0, 52.5, 105, 157.5 and 210 kg/ha). Finally, the meteorological data under two climate scenarios and verified APSIM-Wheat model were used to simulate spring wheat yield and biomass under different experimental conditions. The results showed that under the two future climate scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the yield and biomass of spring wheat were ESW > NSW > LSW. The coefficient of variation and regression equations of spring wheat yield under different experimental conditions were analyzed comprehensively. Spring wheat in the research area should be planted with 157.5 kg/ha nitrogen in early March in order to consistently provide a high and steady yield of spring wheat under future warm and humid conditions in Northwest China.

Key words: Spring wheat, APSIM-Wheat model, Yield, Biomass, Sowing date, Nitrogen application rate

Table 1

Soil properties"

土层深度
Soil
depth
(cm)		 容重
Bulk
density
(g/cm3)		 风干含水率
Air-dried
moisture
(mm/mm)		 土壤导水率
Soil hydraulic
conductivity
(mm/h)		 饱和含水率
Saturated
moisture
(mm/mm)
0~5 1.290 0.013 0.013 0.460
5~10 1.226 0.013 0.013 0.490
10~30 1.325 0.046 0.046 0.450
30~50 1.200 0.071 0.071 0.500
50~80 1.140 0.087 0.087 0.520
80~110 1.140 0.103 0.103 0.520
110~140 1.250 0.107 0.107 0.480
140~170 1.120 0.115 0.115 0.530
170~200 1.110 0.127 0.127 0.530

Table 2

Growth parameters of Dingxi 35"

参数Parameter 值Value
株高Plant height (mm) 1000
春化敏感因子Vernalization sensitivity 1.0
从灌浆期至成熟期积温
Thermal time from filling to mature (℃)		 580
最大谷粒质量Maximum grain size (g) 0.045
最大灌浆速率Maximum grain filling rate (mg/d) 2.30
分蘖质量Weight of tiller (g) 1.22
每茎秆籽粒数Grains per stem 25.0
光周期敏感因子Photoperiod sensitivity 2.0

Fig.1

Linear fitting of simulated and measured of spring wheat yield and biomass"

Fig.2

Changes in the average daily maximum and minimum temperature and annual precipitation in the study area under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5"

Fig.3

Effects of sowing date and nitrogen application rate changes under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 on yield and biomass of spring wheat"

Table 3

Quadratic regression equations for spring wheat yield and biomass in relation to sowing date and nitrogen application rate under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios"

气候模式Climatic model 方程Equation 相关系数Correlation coefficient
RCP4.5 Y产量=1355.23+182.20X1+74.96X2-0.36X12-0.15X22-0.29X1X2 0.96
Y生物量=3752.86+255.17X1+95.56X2-0.41X12-0.17X22-0.38X1X2 0.94
RCP8.5 Y产量=1429.16+177.08X1+69.41X2-0.29X12-0.13X22-0.30X1X2 0.98
Y生物量=3716.45+254.87X1+93.46X2-0.44X12-0.17X22-0.41X1X2 0.93

Fig.4

Variation coefficient of spring wheat yield under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios"

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