Crops ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 231-239.doi: 10.16035/j.issn.1001-7283.2026.01.029

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Establishment and Verification of a Simulation Model for Tobacco Leaf Initiation Based on Different Temperature and Light Scales

Wang Dequan1(), Liu Zhongqing1, Zhao Qinghai1, Zhao Hongjun1, Sun Gang1, Wang Yi1, Sun Yanguo2(), Shi Yi2, Jiang Bin3, Wu Kaicheng3   

  1. 1Shandong Weifang Tobacco Co., Ltd, Weifang 261061, Shandong, China
    2Institute of Tobacco Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences / Key Laboratory of Tobacco Biology and Processing, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Qingdao 266101, Shandong, China
    3China National Tobacco Corporation Shandong Province Company, Jinan 250101, Shandong, China
  • Received:2024-08-21 Revised:2024-09-27 Online:2026-02-15 Published:2026-02-10

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Abstract:

In order to accurately simulate the initiation process of tobacco leaves and provided reference for precise management and control of tobacco production, field comparison experiments of different transplanting date treatments were carried out for two consecutive years from 2022 to 2023 to establish dynamic models of tobacco leaf changes based on different scales, and the simulation accuracy of different models was analyzed. The results showed that the rate of leaf initiation accelerated with the delay of the transplanting date, and the time to reach the maximum number of leaves was shortened. The final number of leaves (A value) in different transplanting dates was basically the same. The leaf initiation models of tobacco was an atypical “S” type growth curve with no stable growth period. The accuracy of the growing degree days model was higher than that of the growing day model, which had better practicality when the temperature changed in the appropriate range. The accuracy of the thermal-photo effectiveness model was higher than the growing degree days model, however, the prediction accuracy fluctuated across different years. The accuracy of the physiological development time model was higher than other models. The time for the tobacco leaves number to reach the maximum value was 37.63- 46.62, the growing degree days was 440.06-483.04, the thermal-photo effectiveness value was 30.17-34.36, and the physiological development time was 29.13-31.80, in the transplanting date from late April to late May in Shandong tobacco area. The simulation model of tobacco leaf initiation based on physiological development time had higher reliability and universality, which could accurately characterize the process of plant development and provide support for the precise management of tobacco production.

Key words: Tobacco, Leaf initiation, Temperature, Light, Simulation model

Fig.1

Meteorological data at different transplanting periods"

Table 1

Parameters of tobacco leaf initiation dynamic model"

自变量
Independent variable		 处理
Treatment		 模型参数Model parameter R2
A B K N
生长天数GD A1 40.833 689.746 14.693 479.172 0.997**
A2 40.667 583.130 13.438 422.498 0.996**
A3 40.814 709.781 17.309 497.594 0.997**
A4 40.748 445.869 11.766 310.362 0.998**
均值 40.645 708.780 16.903 504.512 0.990**
生长度日GDD A1 41.026 23.013 0.053 16.493 0.996**
A2 40.681 52.997 0.122 40.449 0.995**
A3 40.855 39.364 0.086 30.243 0.996**
A4 40.918 43.451 0.092 31.475 0.995**
均值 40.872 44.227 0.098 32.783 0.993**
温光效应TPE A1 41.170 13.540 0.461 9.520 0.996**
A2 40.693 45.184 1.527 34.277 0.995**
A3 40.834 62.262 2.027 47.644 0.998**
A4 40.833 80.168 2.547 58.131 0.995**
均值 40.852 51.784 1.696 38.553 0.995**
生理发育时间PDT A1 41.068 16.826 0.593 12.239 0.996**
A2 41.048 27.059 0.937 20.518 0.995**
A3 40.913 61.947 2.144 47.064 0.996**
A4 40.833 64.961 2.199 46.130 0.995**
均值 40.847 43.558 1.521 32.177 0.995**

Fig.2

Simulation model of tobacco leaf development"

Table 2

Model verification of tobacco leaf development"

年份
Year		 处理
Treatment		 均方根误差RMSE 相对误差RE (%)
生长天数
GD		 生长度日
GDD		 温光效应
TPE		 生理发育时间
PDT		 生长天数
GD		 生长度日
GDD		 温光效应
TPE		 生理发育时间
PDT
2022 A1 2.29 1.00 0.84 0.89 8.89 3.89 3.26 3.46
A2 0.92 1.16 1.02 0.97 3.58 4.52 3.96 3.79
A3 0.98 0.71 0.68 0.76 3.54 2.57 2.45 2.75
A4 2.40 1.18 1.14 1.07 8.66 4.25 4.10 3.84
均值 1.78 1.01 0.98 0.91 6.67 3.80 3.43 3.42
2023 B1 2.93 0.91 0.90 0.75 12.82 3.99 3.96 3.30
B2 0.79 1.07 0.96 0.86 3.17 4.34 3.88 3.46
B3 1.81 0.98 1.03 0.94 6.89 3.71 3.92 3.59
均值 2.04 0.99 0.97 0.85 8.28 4.01 3.92 3.47

Fig.3

Comparison between simulated and measured values of tobacco leaf number"

Fig.4

Rate of tobacco leaf initiation"

Table 3

Characteristic parameters of tobacco leaf initiation dynamic model"

自变量Independent variable Va Vmax TVmax WVmax T1 T2 T3
生长天数GD 0.62~0.77 1.23~1.51 37.41~46.52 40.00~40.31 36.92~46.10 37.90~46.94 37.63~46.62
生长度日GDD 0.05~0.06 0.10~0.11 381.32~434.80 34.49~37.10 325.33~396.33 434.98~473.27 440.06~483.04
温光效应TPE 0.82~0.86 1.41~1.64 24.48~29.88 32.15~38.07 19.01~28.27 29.64~31.50 30.17~34.36
生理发育时间PDT 0.85~0.93 1.49~1.75 24.15~27.80 33.25~37.67 19.56~26.03 28.74~29.57 29.13~31.80
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