Crops ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 162-165.doi: 10.16035/j.issn.1001-7283.2017.03.029

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Establishment of Short-Term Forecasting Model for Rice Sheath Rot in Sanjiang Plain

Gu Xin1,Wang Ping1,Yang Xiaohe1,Yao Liangliang1,Liu Wei1,Zhao Haihong1,Ding Junjie1,Shen Hongbo2   

  1. 1 Jiamusi Branch,Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Jiamusi Station of Crop Harmful Biology Science Observation,Ministry of Agriculture,Jiamusi 154007,Heilongjiang,China
    2 Heilongjiang Agricultural Vocational and Technology College,Jiamusi 154007,Heilongjiang,China
  • Received:2017-02-09 Revised:2017-04-11 Online:2017-06-15 Published:2018-08-26
  • Contact: Junjie Ding

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Abstract:

The aim of the study was to determine the occurrence of rice sheath rot in Sanjiang plain of Heilongjiang province. The meteorological factors and disease index of rice sheath rot were investigated and monitored regularly in Heilongjiang province from 2007 to 2016. The meteorological factors affecting the disease index of rice sheath rot were studied by path analysis and stepwise regression. The results showed that the average temperature was the most influential meteorological factor to the rice sheath rot in August, followed by the average rainfall in August and the average sunshine hours in September. The simulation equations can be used to forcast the rice sheath rot occurrence.

Key words: Rice sheath rot, Path analysis, Stepwise regression, Prediction model

Table 1

The disease incidence of rice sheath rot and meteorological factors in Heilongjiang province from 2007 to 2016"

年份
Year		 平均温度Mean temperature (℃) 降雨量Rainfall (mm) 日照时数Sunshine duration (h) 病情指数Disease index (%)
X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 X9 X10 X11 X12 Y
2007 17.91 19.29 22.58 18.35 92.90 80.23 90.31 79.84 311.39 318.98 297.32 286.35 25.36
2008 15.36 19.49 19.63 18.35 68.23 73.25 68.71 75.60 291.47 289.86 294.93 265.35 18.24
2009 14.50 19.26 20.72 17.12 83.41 50.21 80.08 81.61 308.27 327.25 298.74 280.36 21.31
2010 13.93 20.44 18.36 15.31 63.59 65.69 68.75 62.68 282.66 302.06 301.37 243.65 17.22
2011 15.25 19.91 20.31 17.35 85.07 75.20 83.94 62.70 299.25 307.72 298.57 241.32 22.31
2012 16.85 18.93 20.89 15.69 80.78 62.36 80.93 77.25 281.29 338.37 304.31 287.35 21.44
2013 17.49 19.26 16.92 16.38 60.12 78.23 62.19 78.35 281.41 281.16 317.73 248.68 15.65
2014 15.43 20.23 20.78 15.36 69.60 53.21 76.84 57.49 282.46 299.96 287.12 278.54 18.63
2015 16.02 20.46 21.29 17.31 84.85 59.85 82.32 57.28 285.94 281.46 344.64 289.35 20.12
2016 16.40 19.51 20.84 15.58 80.83 53.39 70.51 78.51 290.51 300.39 326.40 287.35 19.32

Table 2

Analysis of meteorological factors and rice sheath rot disease index path"

因子Factor 直接通径系数Direct path coefficient →X1 →X3 →X5 →X7 →X8 →X10 →X11 →X12
X1 0.0467 0.1778 -0.0843 0.1181 0.1715 0.0001 0.0527 -0.2114
X3 0.9163 0.0091 -0.2866 0.6148 0.0014 0.0407 -0.0049 -0.4401
X5 -0.3245 0.0121 0.8094 0.6395 0.0559 0.0430 0.0270 -0.3295
X7 0.7127 0.0077 0.7905 -0.2912 -0.0417 0.0472 -0.0229 -0.2623
X8 0.3991 0.0201 0.0033 -0.0454 -0.0744 0.0349 -0.0194 -0.1318
X10 0.0856 0.0000 0.4361 -0.1632 0.3927 0.1627 -0.0906 -0.1826
X11 0.1965 0.0125 -0.0228 -0.0447 -0.0830 -0.0395 -0.0394 -0.1568
X12 -0.5816 0.0170 0.6934 -0.1839 0.3215 0.0905 0.0269 0.0530

Table 3

Complex correlation and F-test"

偏相关
Partial correlation		 t检验值
t-test value		 P-值
P-value
r(y, X1)= 0.9654 3.7045 0.0658
r(y, X2)= 0.9965 11.9813 0.0069
r(y, X4)= -0.9673 3.8138 0.0624
r(y, X5)= 0.9979 15.3679 0.0042
r(y, X6)= 0.9971 13.0462 0.0058
r(y, X7)= 0.9822 5.2235 0.0348
r(y, X8)= 0.9838 5.4899 0.0316
r(y, X9)= -0.9974 13.9121 0.0051
相关系数 R=1.000
F值 F=377.7252 Df=(8,1)
P值 P=0.0173
剩余标准差 S=0.0662

Table 4

The matching results of the simulative equation with meteorological factors"

样本
Sample		 观测值
Observed value		 拟合值
Fitted value		 拟合误差
Fitting error
1 25.3600 25.3370 0.0230
2 18.2400 18.2799 -0.0399
3 21.3100 21.2990 0.0110
4 17.2200 17.1963 0.0237
5 22.3100 22.3248 -0.0148
6 21.4400 21.4689 -0.0289
7 15.6500 15.6424 0.0076
8 18.6300 18.6171 0.0129
9 20.1200 20.1292 -0.0092
10 19.3200 19.3053 0.0147
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