气候变化对冀西北青贮玉米种植布局影响的预测

doi:10.16035/j.issn.1001-7283.2020.01.020

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the potential climate factors affecting the distribution of silage maize planting areas and combined with the geographical distribution of silage maize planting areas in Northwest Hebei Province, climate suitability was studied by using ArcGIS 9.3 technology maximum entropy model. The results showed that the distribution pattern of silage maize planting area in Zhangjiakou area from North to Southeast was "Optimum area—suitable area—less suitable area—unsuitable area". The results showed that optimum suitable area is 28.16%. Early-maturing varieties are recommended to be planted; suitable area is 57.72%. Late-maturing varieties are suitable for middle-late-maturing varieties; less suitable area is 9.65%. It is suggested that medium-maturing varieties should be planted; unsuitable area is 4.46%. It is suggested that silage maize should be reduced and grapes be replaced. With the continuous increase of accumulated temperature and annual average temperature above 10℃ in 1986-2050, precipitation showed a trend of rising first (2030s) and then decreasing (2050s). Combining with the climate scenario data of 2030s and 2050s, the future climate scenarios of 2030s and 2050s will affect the potential planting area layout of silage maize in Northwest Hebei, which is the suitable area for silage maize. The planting area tends to decrease gradually with the future climate change, while the unsuitable area tends to expand from South to North.

Key words: Silage maize, Climate change, Climate suitability, Planting area distribution

Xu Hanlin,Liu Yao,Yuan Xiaofeng,Pan Jie,Weng Qiaoyun,Lü Aizhi,Liu Yinghui. Projection of Climate Change on the Planting Distribution of Silage Maize in Northwest Hebei Province[J].Crops, 2020, 36(1): 124-129.

Figures/Tables 5

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References 22

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地区 Area	年平均温度(℃) Average annual temperature			≥10℃积温(℃) ≥10℃ accumulated temperature			降水量(mm) Precipitation
地区 Area	Bs	2030s	2050s	Bs	2030s	2050s	Bs	2030s	2050s
赤城Chicheng	5.01	6.40	7.46	2 951.14	3 295.11	3 492.37	474.40	511.55	463.91
崇礼Chongli	4.38	5.74	6.81	2 854.78	3 177.86	3 376.73	429.78	485.76	430.37
沽源Guyuan	1.42	2.80	3.84	2 285.76	2 588.66	2 778.63	434.97	482.93	434.13
怀安Huaian	6.41	7.78	8.82	3 264.12	3 600.78	3 810.48	409.98	467.90	419.54
怀来Huailai	7.86	9.22	10.28	3 535.04	3 925.09	4 127.01	492.23	538.56	493.53
康保Kangbao	0.31	1.69	2.68	2 093.42	2 375.17	2 543.01	399.20	466.98	421.11
尚义Shangyi	4.05	5.39	6.40	2 791.20	3 091.69	3 265.21	397.94	464.18	422.88
万全Wanquan	5.65	7.00	8.05	3 125.00	3 451.74	3 649.79	405.49	469.44	419.26
蔚县Yu county	6.31	7.69	8.71	3 170.38	3 521.17	3 729.71	489.88	531.66	492.36
宣化Xuhua	6.39	7.77	8.83	3 254.17	3 597.16	3 809.25	433.66	484.35	434.87
阳原Yangyuan	6.42	7.82	8.85	3 243.78	3 587.69	3 801.08	432.30	476.06	428.86
张北Zhangbei	3.22	4.57	5.61	2 639.40	2 946.46	3 131.40	408.69	475.71	423.41
张家口Zhangjiakou	6.14	7.51	8.57	3 217.44	3 559.08	3 763.87	427.67	480.35	429.38
涿鹿Zhuolu	7.25	8.62	9.67	3 374.05	3 743.58	3 956.34	488.44	538.06	494.56

Projection of Climate Change on the Planting Distribution of Silage Maize in Northwest Hebei Province

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