Crops ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 91-98.doi: 10.16035/j.issn.1001-7283.2016.06.016

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Analysis on Potential Productivity and Climatic Influence Factors of Spring Maize in Jilin

Chen Xiayan1,2,Wang Lianxi1,2,Ren Jingquan3,Guo Chunming3,Li Qi1,2,Li Yingying1,2   

  1. 1 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China
    2 Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China;
    3 Institute of Meteorological Science of Jilin Province,Changchun 130062,Jilin,China
  • Received:2016-07-25 Revised:2016-10-17 Online:2016-12-15 Published:2018-08-26

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Abstract:

To study the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and potential productivity of spring maize in Jilin and its response to climate change, meteorological data of spring maize in Jilin growing area from 1961 to 2015 were used in order to calculate the spring maize photosynthesis potential productivity, photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity based on dynamic statistic model. Sensitivity of potential productivity to average temperature and precipitation in every growth period was analyzed by using the sensitivity coefficients. The results revealed that spring maize photosynthesis potential productivity and photosynthesis-temperature potential productivity showed a decreasing trend from west to east and the spatial distribution of spring maize climatic potential productivity showed an “increasing-decreasing-increasing” trend from west to east. The largest climatic potential productivity was 17 266kg/hm 2 in the central region. The climatic potential productivity in the western region was 10 787kg/hm 2 and the productivity in the eastern region is 16 983kg/hm 2. The influence rates of average temperature to potential productivity in the western region, central region and eastern region respectively were 20.1%, 19.5% and 30.9%, respectively; The influence rates of precipitation to potential productivity were 50.9%, 17.6% and 3.2%, respectively; The average sensitivity coefficients of average temperature in western region and central region respectively were 1.77 and 1.99, the maximum value was 3.63 in eastern region. The average sensitivity coefficients of precipitation in western region reached 1.6 of the highest value, while the low value area of sensitivity coefficients to precipitation was in eastern region. Precipitation was the most sensitive variable to spring maize climatic potential productivity in western region; Temperature was the most sensitive variable to spring maize climatic potential productivity in eastern region.

Key words: Spring maize, Climatic potential productivity, Dynamic statistic model, Climate change

Table 1

The study districts and distribution for the sites"

区域District 站点Site
西部地区Western region 扶余,大安,洮南,前郭,白城,镇赉,松原,乾安,通榆,长岭
中部地区Central region 德惠,东丰,九台,梨树,辽源,双阳,公主岭,伊通,长春,四平,农安,榆树,双辽
东部地区Eastern region
 安图,白山,敦化,东岗,二道,和龙,通化县,柳河,临江,龙井,舒兰,磐石,梅河口,吉林城郊,集安,
辉南,延吉,长白,通化,汪清,烟筒山,图们,永吉,蛟河,靖宇,珲春,桦甸

Table 2

Three point temperature of spring maize in every growth period ℃"

生育时期Development period T0 T1 T2
播种-出苗Sowing-emergence 12 8 35
出苗-拔节Emergence-jointing 20 10 38
拔节-抽雄Jointing-heading 26 18 38
抽雄-乳熟Heading-milk maturity 27 19 30
乳熟-成熟Milk maturity-maturity 22 16 30

Table 3

Spatial change of spring maize production potential kg/hm2"

站点Site Y1 Y2 Y3 站点Site Y1 Y2 Y3
舒兰Shulan 26 850.52 19 948.68 19 178.90 白山Baishan 24 239.16 16 574.18 16 564.09
通化Tonghua 25 210.39 19 518.59 19 518.59 临江Linjiang 24 432.12 18 995.27 18 995.27
永吉Yongji 26 415.39 20 821.71 20 143.78 集安Ji’an 24 763.37 21 478.55 21 294.15
双阳Shuangyang 26 448.45 20 743.81 18 679.46 长白Changbai 25 268.92 8 156.78 7 923.75
蛟河Jiaohe 25 775.30 18 207.57 17 714.73 白城Baicheng 28 018.55 21 646.82 9 529.32
敦化Dunhua 25 067.98 12 904.21 12 513.37 洮南Taonan 28 890.79 23 414.84 9 077.88
安图Antu 24 285.80 14 519.03 13 976.35 镇赉Zhenlai 28 446.12 22 367.24 9 945.62
汪清Wangqing 24 467.99 16 093.11 14 783.78 大安Da’an 29 054.21 23 179.18 11 070.41
辽源Liaoyuan 26 233.89 21 279.99 19 656.92 松原Songyuan 27 520.31 22 327.15 11 875.21
东丰Dongfeng 27 566.14 21 102.77 17 266.36 乾安Qian’an 27 623.70 22 427.60 10 765.50
磐石Panshi 26 107.96 19 856.23 19 309.50 前郭Qianguo 27 725.69 22 580.93 12 050.67
图们Tumen 22 995.50 16 898.60 15 993.45 通榆Tongyu 27 977.29 22 984.32 9 334.00
柳河Liuhe 26 268.61 20 353.32 19 891.71 长岭Changling 27 310.05 22 141.09 11 480.67
桦甸Huadian 25 537.65 19 598.15 19 498.04 扶余Fuyu 26 435.26 19 609.74 12 746.97
辉南Huinan 26 374.00 20 277.44 19 717.49 农安Nong’an 27 491.22 21 877.96 15 645.30
靖宇Jingyu 25 634.29 14 487.66 14 422.83 德惠Dehui 26 965.09 13 467.72 13 422.03
东岗Donggang 26 116.89 12 889.15 12 889.15 九台Jiutai 26 891.11 21 661.31 18 048.12
二道Erdao 25 804.78 11 459.87 11 431.66 榆树Yushu 27 566.14 21 102.77 17 266.36
和龙Helong 24 634.39 15 715.69 14 728.27 双辽Shuangliao 28 701.25 24 052.79 15 515.88
龙井Longjing 24 975.39 18 955.80 17 501.82 梨树Lishu 27 534.60 23 160.29 18 772.67
珲春Hunchun 23 430.21 17 178.12 16 307.89 伊通Yitong 26 970.93 20 595.48 18 669.78
延吉Yanji 24 711.55 18 692.70 16 832.66 四平Siping 27 125.30 22 875.11 19 880.11
长春Changchun 27 382.36 22 189.90 18 213.50 梅河口Meiheikou 26 490.31 20 753.93 19 799.12
通化县Tonghuaxian 25 146.90 18 180.69 18 194.58 公主岭Gongzhuling 27 675.85 22 915.47 18 461.87
烟筒山Yantongshan 26 177.22 20 366.88 19 915.91 吉林城郊Jilinchengjiao 25 691.01 20 518.14 19 526.52

Table 4

Changing trends of spring maize production potential kg/(hm2·10a)"

站点Site DY1 DY2 DY3 站点Site DY1 DY2 DY3
舒兰Shulan -218.40** 445.54** 418.48 白山Baishan 6.45* 469.93 469.93
通化Tonghua -194.47** 166.03 166.03 临江Linjiang -314.49 -174.86 -174.86
永吉Yongji 43.35** 414.38** 874.16 集安Ji’an -208.80 -38.69 -123.58
双阳Shuangyang -174.26 217.07 -175.85 长白Changbai 29.871 1 071.30 982.44
蛟河Jiaohe -355.80** 69.62** 75.52 白城Baicheng -510.77 60.36 -285.42
敦化Dunhua -356.57** 1 081.10** 1 087.70 洮南Taonan -95.54 466.00 -202.86
安图Antu -216.88** 419.10** 569.03 镇赉Zhenlai 36.98 486.10 192.22
汪清Wangqing -78.57** 351.92** 332.78 大安Da’an -383.45 54.46 290.97
辽源Liaoyuan -278.56** -52.32** -230.81 松原Songyuan -125.47 478.84 430.00
东丰Dongfeng -102.35** 274.57** -245.94 乾安Qian’an -641.22 -99.29 81.56
磐石Panshi -323.60** 16.38** -94.31 前郭Qianguo -320.88 136.84 91.01
图们Tumen 563.81** 1 051.30 1 227.60 通榆Tongyu -568.25 130.40 -447.63
柳河Liuhe -675.66** -182.14** -232.92 长岭Changling -721.58 -136.92 -721.27
桦甸Huadian -400.57** -86.77** -114.38 扶余Fuyu -988.59 -255.80 233.90
辉南Huinan -368.70** -8.82** -113.55 农安Nong’an -34.78 65.33 -549.32
靖宇Jingyu -254.10** 632.76* 641.00 德惠Dehui -391.42 988.38 991.39
东岗Donggang -319.04** 204.51* 204.51 九台Jiutai -369.60 115.40 -138.25
二道Erdao 74.82** 1 039.40 1 041.60 榆树Yushu -102.35 274.57 -245.94
和龙Helong -270.90** 21.23 -3.34 双辽Shuangliao -471.80 -297.88 75.63
龙井Longjing -416.55** -51.76 158.23 梨树Lishu -184.13 261.00 -160.73
珲春Hunchun 42.21** 744.30 884.82 伊通Yitong 386.95 805.99 328.04
延吉Yanji 40.79** 282.24 118.25 四平Siping -955.59 -510.10 -808.48
长春Changchun -139.40 425.82 134.33 梅河口Meiheikou -437.32 40.16 -167.83
通化县Tonghuaxian -733.92** -62.30 -62.30 公主岭Gongzhuling 114.21 517.18 -75.46
烟筒山Yantongshan -433.47** -203.29** -151.75 吉林城郊Jilinchengjiao -693.62 -184.01 -191.16

Fig.1

Temporal and spatial distribution of the influence rate of temperature and precipitation on spring maize"

Table5

Change trends of climate factors of spring maize in every growth period"

站点Site 平均气温(℃/10a)
Average temperature		 降水(mm/10a)
Precipitation		 站点Site 平均气温(℃/10a)
Average temperature		 降水(mm/10a)
Precipitation
舒兰Shulan 0.25** -5.25 白山Baishan 0.22 -8.82
通化Tonghua 0.17** -1.39 临江Linjiang 0.08 -6.93
永吉Yongji 0.21** 8.89 集安Ji’an 0.13** -15.41
双阳Shuangyang 0.22** 1.58 长白Changbai 0.30** -17.15*
蛟河Jiaohe 0.15** -5.02 白城Baicheng 0.26** -12.95
敦化Dunhua 0.32** -9.13 洮南Taonan 0.29** -10.4
安图Antu 0.14** -1.03 镇赉Zhenlai 0.24** -2.46
汪清Wangqing 0.13** -6.31 大安Da’an 0.21** 1.28
辽源Liaoyuan 0.16** -10.01 松原Songyuan 0.33** 0.25
东丰Dongfeng 0.17** -6.24 乾安Qian’an 0.26** -3.07
磐石Panshi 0.18** -0.50 前郭Qianguo 0.27** -3.42
图们Tumen 0.23** -7.60 通榆Tongyu 0.24** -11.87
柳河Liuhe 0.19** -5.82 长岭Changling 0.28** -17.20*
桦甸Huadian 0.16** 7.38 扶余Fuyu 0.23** -2.03
辉南Huinan 0.19** -0.80 农安Nong’an 0.18** -15.79
靖宇Jingyu 0.25** 7.91 德惠Dehui 0.23** -5.95
东岗Donggang 0.12** -1.14 九台Jiutai 0.28** -11.62
二道Erdao 0.25** -0.17 榆树Yushu 0.21** -14.05
和龙Helong 0.07 -2.18 双辽Shuangliao 0.16** -1.53
龙井Longjing 0.09 1.24 梨树Lishu 0.30** -12.00
珲春Hunchun 0.26** -15.32 伊通Yitong 0.25** -8.15
延吉Yanji 0.10 -2.83 四平Siping 0.25** -15.27
长春Changchun 0.29** 6.94 梅河口Meiheikou 0.22** -2.34
通化县Tonghuaxian 0.16* 11.68 公主岭Gongzhuling 0.23** -5.24
烟筒山Yantongshan 0.15** -1.73 吉林城郊Jilinchengjiao 0.16** -1.85

Table 6

Sensitivity coefficients of temperature and precipitation of spring maize in every growth period"

站点Site 平均气温Average temperature 降水Precipitation 站点Site 平均气温Average temperature 降水Precipitation
舒兰Shulan 1.10 0.41 白山Baishan 5.59 0.29
通化Tonghua 2.27 -0.18 临江Linjiang 2.79 -0.33
永吉Yongji 0.50 -0.52 集安Ji’an 0.82 -0.11
双阳Shuangyang 2.70 0.09 长白Changbai 5.88 -0.65
蛟河Jiaohe 3.72 -0.21 白城Baicheng 1.47 2.15
敦化Dunhua 6.45 0.33 洮南Taonan 2.22 1.97
安图Antu 4.42 -0.04 镇赉Zhenlai 1.43 2.01
汪清Wangqing 2.42 0.86 大安Da’an 0.96 1.45
辽源Liaoyuan 2.60 -0.58 松原Songyuan 1.75 0.74
东丰Dongfeng 0.53 1.18 乾安Qian’an 0.08 1.96
磐石Panshi 3.33 0.28 前郭Qianguo 1.47 0.80
图们Tumen 4.75 0.72 通榆Tongyu 2.07 2.02
柳河Liuhe 4.33 0.41 长岭Changling 0.27 1.33
桦甸Huadian 2.68 0.05 扶余Fuyu 3.44 1.64
辉南Huinan 2.54 0.58 农安Nong’an 0.03 1.04
靖宇Jingyu 6.82 -0.46 德惠Dehui 3.93 2.29
东岗Donggang 6.41 -0.14 九台Jiutai 2.13 1.07
二道Erdao 8.89 0.37 榆树Yushu 0.03 0.30
和龙Helong 4.85 0.29 双辽Shuangliao 3.02 1.87
龙井Longjing 2.26 0.81 梨树Lishu 1.05 1.08
珲春Hunchun 4.01 -0.37 伊通Yitong 2.21 0.48
延吉Yanji 2.85 0.69 四平Siping 1.92 2.27
长春Changchun 2.09 1.17 梅河口Meiheikou 2.12 0.33
通化县Tonghuaxian 4.11 -0.50 公主岭Gongzhuling 1.27 1.41
烟筒山Yantongshan 3.73 -0.49 吉林城郊Jilinchengjiao 1.31 -0.20
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