新源县1981-2018年气候变化特征及其对春玉米的影响

doi:10.16035/j.issn.1001-7283.2020.02.021

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the data of temperature, precipitation, sunshine, growth period and yield of spring maize from 1981 to 2018 at Xinyuan National General Meteorological Station, the characteristics of climate change and its impact on spring maize were studied by using statistical methods (linear regression, M-K mutation test, correlation coefficient and moving average). The results showed that the temperature and sunshine of Xinyuan changed abruptly during 1981-2018, and the climate changed to hot and sunshine. These change also led to the significant advance of spring maize growth period from sowing to milk ripening, but the maturity period was not significantly delayed, and the whole growth period was significantly prolonged. Temperature is a key factor affecting the development period of spring maize in Xinyuan. Among the key factors, the average minimum temperature has the greatest impact. The climate resources in Xinyuan County have a slight disadvantage on maize yield, and human intervention is needed in the process of maize growth, especially at jointing stage, artificial irrigation is needed to cope with the problem of excessive temperature.

Key words: Xinyuan, Climate change, Spring maize, Development period, Meteorological yield

Yan Hua,Yan Zhongwen,Lei Jie. Climate Change Characteristics of Xinyuan during 1981-2018 and Its Impact on Spring Maize[J].Crops, 2020, 36(2): 140-146.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Table 1

Fig.4

Table 2

Fig.5

Table 3

Correlation coefficient between meteorological factors and main growth stages of spring maize"

生育时期 Growth stage		平均气温 Average temperature	平均最高气温 Average maximum temperature	平均最低气温 Average minimum temperature	极端最高气温 Extreme maximum temperature	极端最低气温 Extreme minimum temperature	降水量 Precipitation	日照时数 Sunshine hours
播种期 Sowing	4月April	-0.6354^***	-0.6024^***	-0.6939^***	-0.1008	-0.4848^**	-0.2314	-0.2312
出苗期 Seedling	4月April	-0.6278^***	-0.5813^***	-0.7008^***	-0.0052	-0.3879^*	-0.2008	-0.2025
出苗期 Seedling	5月May	-0.5284^***	-0.4910^**	-0.5668^***	-0.3745^*	-0.4075^*	-0.0244	-0.1637
拔节期 Jointing	4月April	-0.5677^***	-0.5269^***	-0.6606^***	-0.1929	-0.3017	-0.1669	-0.2478
拔节期 Jointing	5月May	-0.5529^***	-0.5010^**	-0.6104^***	-0.3949^*	-0.5395^***	-0.0430	-0.1769
	6月June	-0.6175^***	-0.4813^**	-0.7224^***	-0.2236	-0.3868^*	-0.0983	-0.2298
抽雄期 Tasselling	4月April	-0.5476^***	-0.4788^**	-0.6257^***	-0.1053	-0.3481^*	-0.1230	-0.2086
抽雄期 Tasselling	5月May	-0.5701^***	-0.4947^**	-0.6497^***	-0.4070^*	-0.4346^**	-0.0259	-0.1205
	6月June	-0.5660^***	-0.4589^**	-0.6542^***	-0.1773	-0.4767^**	-0.0053	-0.1646
	7月July	-0.4550^**	-0.3248^*	-0.5245^***	-0.0473	-0.4236^**	-0.1057	-0.2120
乳熟期 Milk ripening	4月April	-0.4543^**	-0.3753^*	-0.5917^***	-0.0732	-0.2402	-0.0337	-0.0193
乳熟期 Milk ripening	5月May	-0.6046^***	-0.5080^**	-0.7069^***	-0.2869	-0.5935^***	-0.0856	-0.1015
	6月June	-0.6040^***	-0.5552^***	-0.6496^***	-0.0588	-0.3284^*	-0.1200	-0.2390
	7月July	-0.5659^***	-0.4458^**	-0.6310^***	-0.1363	-0.4861^**	-0.1978	-0.2686
	8月August	-0.3003	-0.0804	-0.5532^***	-0.0408	-0.1004	-0.2766	0.0599
成熟期 Mature	4月April	-0.1810	-0.2102	-0.1398	-0.0363	-0.1409	-0.2971	-0.2904
成熟期 Mature	5月May	-0.4077^*	-0.3182	-0.4353^*	-0.2261	-0.2792	-0.2649	-0.0905
	6月June	-0.2899	-0.3131	-0.1968	-0.0906	-0.2683	-0.1946	-0.2364
	7月July	-0.0416	-0.0049	-0.0703	-0.2178	-0.0618	-0.0309	0.0786
	8月August	-0.0233	-0.0709	-0.0648	-0.0286	-0.1609	-0.0034	-0.1536
	9月Septemper	-0.1695	-0.1089	-0.1105	-0.2145	-0.0897	-0.3879^*	-0.0992

Table 3

Table 4

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指标Index	4月April	5月May	6月June	7月July	8月August	9月September
平均气温Average temperature	-0.0526	0.0570^**	0.0604^***	-0.0505^***	0.0310^*	-0.0412^*
平均最高气温Average maximum temperature	-0.0466	0.0562^**	0.0567^**	-0.0378^*	0.0063	-0.0277
平均最低气温Average minimum temperature	-0.0741^**	0.0561^**	0.0749^***	-0.0687^***	0.0697^***	-0.0680^***
极端最高气温Extreme maximum temperature	-0.0530	0.0235	0.0277	-0.0332	0.0082	-0.0313
极端最低气温Extreme minimum temperature	-0.0188	0.1177^**	0.0811^*	-0.0824^**	0.0409	-0.0403
降水量Precipitation	-0.7504	0.2421	0.2778	-0.1088	0.3676	-0.0469
日照时数Sunshine hours	-0.1972	0.7203	0.5679	-0.7998^*	0.2278	-0.1467

指标Index	播种期Sowing	出苗期Seedling	拔节期Jointing	抽雄期Tasseling	乳熟期Milk ripening	成熟期Mature
日期（月/日） Date (Month/Day)	-4/22	-5/04	-6/18	-7/13	-8/15	9/11
倾向率Inclination rate	-0.3553^**	-0.4122^***	-0.4529^***	-0.2982^**	-0.4442^***	0.1239
相关系数Correlation of coefficient	-0.4471	-0.5367	-0.5928	-0.4827	-0.6541	0.1985

指标Index	4月April	5月May	6月June	7月July	8月August	9月September
平均气温Average temperature	0.0839	-0.1093	-0.1464	-0.1420	-0.0001	-0.0248
平均最高气温Average maximum temperature	0.1150	-0.1114	-0.1307	-0.2315	-0.0302	-0.0277
平均最低气温Average minimum temperature	0.0662	-0.0122	-0.0175	-0.0683	-0.0122	0.1030
极端最高气温Extreme maximum temperature	0.0188	-0.0251	-0.3417^*	0.1101	-0.1418	-0.2069
极端最低气温Extreme minimum temperature	0.1114	-0.1012	-0.0843	-0.1139	-0.1700	-0.2367
生长季平均气温Average temperature in growing season	0.0681
≥10℃积温 ≥10℃accumulated temperature	0.0681
降水量Precipitation	-0.1479	-0.1430	-0.2214	-0.0309	-0.1933	0.1147
日照时数Sunshine hours	0.1148	-0.3654^*	-0.3158	-0.0991	-0.4323^**	-0.0732

Climate Change Characteristics of Xinyuan during 1981-2018 and Its Impact on Spring Maize

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