Crops ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (1): 61-67.doi: 10.16035/j.issn.1001-7283.2017.01.012

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The Northern Boundary Variation of Winter Wheat in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei under Climate Warming

Wang Lianxi1,2,Liu Chang1,2,Li Qi1,2,Wu Dongli3,Wang Qing1,2,Cheng Wei1,2   

  1. 1Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China
    2Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China;
    3Meteorological Observation Centre of China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China
  • Received:2016-10-14 Revised:2016-12-16 Online:2017-02-15 Published:2018-08-26

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Abstract:

Winter wheat planting area moves northward due to climate warming. To investigate winter wheat northern boundary variation and the impact of temperature variation on actual winter wheat northern boundary variation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, index calculation method was used to simulate northern boundary under heat resource circumstance, and remote sensing decision tree model to extract actual northern boundary. Results showed that northern boundary under the heat resource circumstance was moving northward 0.0427° every decade. Temperature had positive correlation with the northern boundary moving therefor was the basic reason for the moving.

Key words: Winter wheat, Heat resource, Northern boundary, Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Planting scope

Table 1

Station information"

省份Province 台站Site 经度Longitude 纬度Latitude
河北Hebei 张北 114°70′ 41°15′
河北Hebei 蔚县 114°57′ 39°83′
河北Hebei 石家庄 114°42′ 38°03′
河北Hebei 邢台 114°50′ 37°07′
河北Hebei 丰宁 116°63′ 41°22′
河北Hebei 围场 117°75′ 41°93′
河北Hebei 张家口 114°88′ 40°78′
河北Hebei 怀来 115°50′ 40°40′
北京Beijing 密云 116°87′ 40°38′
河北Hebei 承德 117°95′ 40°98′
河北Hebei 遵化 117°95′ 40°20′
河北Hebei 青龙 118°95′ 40°40′
河北Hebei 秦皇岛 119°52′ 39°85′
北京Beijing 北京 116°47′ 39°80′
河北Hebei 廊坊 116°38′ 39°12′
天津Tianjin 天津 117°07′ 39°08′
河北Hebei 唐山 118°15′ 39°67′
河北Hebei 乐亭 118°88′ 39°43′
河北Hebei 保定 115°52′ 38°85′
河北Hebei 饶阳 115°73′ 38°23′
河北Hebei 沧洲 116°83′ 38°33′
河北Hebei 泊头 116°55′ 38°08′
天津Tianjin 塘沽 117°72′ 39°05′
河北Hebei 黄骅 117°35′ 38°37′
河北Hebei 南宫 115°38′ 37°37′

Table 2

Station heat resource indicator"

项目Item 1月January 越冬前Pre-wintering 越冬期Teleutostage 生育期Growth duration
平均气温
Average temperture
(℃)		 变化率
Variation rate
(℃/a)		 ≥0℃积温
CT (≥0℃)
(℃·d)		 变化率
Variation rate (℃·d/a)		 负积温
Minus CT
(℃·d)		 变化率
Variation rate (℃·d/a)		 ≥0℃积温
CT (≥0℃)
(℃·d)		 变化率
Variation rate (℃·d/a)
围场Weichang -12.6 0.0282 218.96 0.4239 -640.24 2.0626 1 283.79 2.8457
石家庄Shijiazhuang -2.2 0.0408 646.11 2.0315 -129.03 2.1613 2 599.54 7.6595
秦皇岛Qinhuangdao -5.4 0.0387 547.37 0.7637 -262.64 2.3098 1 956.91 4.0273
邢台Xingtai -1.7 0.0626 676.03 2.8262 -109.89 2.6227 2 682.57 9.5598
廊坊Langfang -4.4 0.0616 559.27 2.0964 -217.55 3.4496 2 315.33 8.8840
张家口Zhangjiakou -8.6 0.0514 357.33 1.7434 -434.09 3.1074 1 768.80 5.9467

Fig.1

Trend of accumulated temperature before teleutostage"

Fig.2

Trend of January average temperature"

Fig.3

Trend of minus accumulated temperature at over-wintering"

Fig.4

Trend of accumulated temperature for growth duration"

Fig.5

NDVI time sequence curve graph"

Table 3

Statistical table of picture element number and winter wheat area"

年份
Year		 冬小麦面积(万hm2)
Winter wheat area		 像元数
Picture element number
2001 275.900 266 954
2002 257.610 246 376
2003 230.580 141 912
2004 227.380 152 324
2005 251.937 209 283
2006 266.567 294 214
2007 255.038 276 440
2008 257.932 239 611
2009 255.377 257 617
2010 258.094 181 417
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